I want to start by looking at a general overview of the
effects sea level rise will have on human society. Whilst this may seem a
little egocentric, I thought it best to begin with something everyone can feel
empathetic towards, humanity.
Here is a great animation showing the areas on Earth likely
to be flooded if sea water were to rise anywhere up to 6m. Whilst this amount
of sea level rise is unlikely to occur in the near future it is not a
completely unfathomable scenario for The Earth’s future.
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Figure based upon findings in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES), showing number of people estimated to be flooded in coastal
areas in 2080 as a result of sea level rise.
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The animation coupled with the graph above (showing
populations likely to be affects by a sea level rise of up to 1m) really
highlights the huge number of people that could and will be affected by future sea
level rise, and the possible colossal consequences for human society, based on
proximity to coastline and GDP/capita.
Some might argue that the human race has survived such rises
in sea level in the past and whilst this is true, humanity has now evolved in
such a way that past survival strategies used by such early humans are no
longer applicable.
In the past when such changes in sea level made a region
untenable its inhabitants would have been able to pack up and move on, rather
than fighting the natural changes that were occurring. In present times due to
the build-up of infrastructure in at risk areas and the large populations living
at or below sea level, human society has lost some of their ability to adapt to
these changes, therefore such a solution is no longer viable.
Society itself has also become more stubborn and unwilling
to face the fact that while we are currently the dominant species involved in
shaping this planet, it has not been and will not be that way forever. Changes
in sea level have occurred throughout Earth’s history and will continue to
occur for its foreseeable future, whether we are here to feel its effects or
not.
Therefore we need to understand that it is possible we
shouldn’t be changing the earth to mould around our needs, maybe we should be
adapting based upon what the changes the earth and its systems are experiencing,
especially since 9/10 times it is humanity that has induced such changes which
are disrupting the natural order of things.
Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilised today sea
level would continue to rise for centuries into the future due to the
timescales involved with climate dynamics and the related processes and
feedback mechanisms attached. Large amount of resources are therefore being
placed in research into the development of new technologies capable of
defending our coastlines and societies from rising sea levels. The question is
though, how much longer can we hold off the inevitable destruction of our
coastlines?
Nicholls, R.J. and Lowe, J.A. (2006) Climate stabilisation and impacts of sea-level rise. In Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (eds. H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T.M.L. Wigley, and G. Yohe). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
areas-in-the-2080s-as-a-result-of-sea-level-rise-and-for-given-socio-economic-scenarios-and-
protection-responses.
References
David Braaten et.al. (2006). Global Sea Level Rise.
Available: https://www.cresis.ku.edu/sites/default/files/sea-level-rise/anim/world.mov.
Last accessed 20/10/2013.Nicholls, R.J. and Lowe, J.A. (2006) Climate stabilisation and impacts of sea-level rise. In Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (eds. H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T.M.L. Wigley, and G. Yohe). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Nicholls, R.J. and Tol, R.S.J. (2006). Impacts and responses to
sealevel rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-firstn century.
Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 364, 1073-1095.
UNEP:
Global outlook for Ice & Snow Estimates of people flooded in coastal
areas in the 2080s as a result of sea level rise and for given socio-economic
scenarios and protection responses. (June 2007). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 20/10/2013. Available: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/estimates-of-people-flooded-in-coastal-areas-in-the-2080s-as-a-result-of-sea-level-rise-and-for-given-socio-economic-scenarios-and-
protection-responses.
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